RISK SCORING

How we calculate supplier risk scores.

Every supplier in RecallScout receives a composite risk score from 0 to 100. The score is calculated from five weighted factors derived from public regulatory data. Here's exactly how it works.

Score interpretation

0–30
Low risk

No recent recalls or regulatory actions. Standard monitoring cadence.

31–69
Moderate risk

Recent recall activity or import refusals. Increased monitoring recommended.

70–100
High risk

Class I recall, multiple recent incidents, or open warning letter. Immediate review required.

Scoring factors

35%
weight

Recall class severity

FDA Class I (life-threatening) scores highest. Class II (temporary adverse health consequences) scores moderate. Class III (unlikely to cause adverse health consequences) scores low. USDA and international equivalents are mapped to the same three-tier scale.

25%
weight

Recall frequency

How many times has this supplier been recalled in the last 24 months? A first-time recall is weighted differently from a supplier with three recalls in the same period. Frequency is normalized by supplier size where data is available.

20%
weight

Recency

A recall from last week is more predictive of current risk than one from 18 months ago. Scores decay exponentially over time using a 12-month half-life. A Class I recall from 6 months ago still contributes significantly to the composite score.

10%
weight

Import refusal history

FDA import refusals are a leading indicator of quality control failures. Suppliers with import refusals in the last 12 months receive a score penalty independent of recall history.

10%
weight

Warning letter signals

FDA warning letters indicate systemic issues — not just product-level failures. A supplier with an open warning letter receives an elevated baseline score regardless of recall history.

Composite formula

Score = (Severity × 0.35) + (Frequency × 0.25) + (Recency × 0.20)
        + (ImportRefusals × 0.10) + (WarningLetters × 0.10)

Each factor is normalized to a 0–100 scale before weighting. The composite score is a weighted sum, capped at 100.

Limitations and caveats

RecallScout risk scores are based entirely on publicly available regulatory data. They do not incorporate private audit results, supplier self-reported data, or third-party certifications.

A low score does not guarantee a supplier is safe — it means no public regulatory actions have been recorded. Scores should be used as one input in a broader supplier qualification process, not as a standalone compliance decision.

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